Are the March Job Numbers a Positive Sign for the Economy?
The Highlights:
- The U.S. added 228,000 nonfarm jobs from February to March on a seasonally adjusted basis, far more than consensus economist estimates of 140,000, according to Dow Jones data.
- Average hourly wages rose to $36, rising 3.8% year-over-year, compared to projections of 3.9% pay growth.
- The government revised its January and February job growth estimates downward by a combined 48,000.
- The number of job openings stood at 7.56 million in February. This reading came in below the market expectation of 7.63 million.
March Jobs Report
Despite the recent uncertainty in the economy, the job market performed generally well in March. 228,000 jobs created beat economists’ expectations. There were downward revisions in January (-14,000) and February (-34,000). Wages rose, but at a manageable rate.
Following up on the U6 rate from last month, it jumped in February 0.5% to 8.0%, the highest level since October 2021. These are folks that are working part-time for economic reasons. It’s down a little this month (7.9%) but seems to be holding. This could mean that there is slack in the labor market where talent exists but is not in demand by employers.
Drilling a little deeper, within government, federal government employment declined by 4,000 in March, following a loss of 11,000 jobs in February. (Employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed in the establishment survey.)
All this data could point to a stable but slowing job market with enough qualified talent to fill open roles. Wage pressure seems to be easing, which may all the Fed to cut rates sooner.
For a deeper dive….
- A more encompassing measure of unemployment (U6) that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons was little changed at 7.9%.
- Prime age labor force participation rate (ages 25-54) was down .2% 83.3%.
- The overall labor force participation held was up .1% to 62.5%. This is still .9% below the level of February 2020.
- In March, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 9 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $36.00. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.8 percent. In March, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees edged up by 5 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $30.96.
- In March, the average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.2 hours. In manufacturing, the average workweek was little changed at 40.2 hours, and overtime was unchanged at 2.9 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 0.2 hour to 33.8 hours in March.
- APD reported that 155,000 jobs were added in March.
Source: ADP, BLS, CNBC, Fox News
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/jolts_02092021.htm
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2015/article/industry-employment-and-output-projections-to-2024.htm
JOB OPENINGS AND LABOR TURNOVER – FEBRUARY 2025
The number of job openings was little changed at 7.6 million in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and total separations held at 5.4 million and 5.3 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.8 million) changed little.
This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the total nonfarm sector, by industry, and by establishment size class. Job openings include all positions that are open on the last business day of the month. Hires and separations include all changes to the payroll during the entire month.
Job Openings
The number of job openings was little changed at 7.6 million in February but was down by 877,000 over the year. The job openings rate, at 4.5 percent, changed little over the month. The number of job openings decreased in finance and insurance (-80,000).
Hires
In February, the number and rate of hires were unchanged at 5.4 million and 3.4 percent, respectively. The number of hires was little changed in all industries in February.
Separations
Total separations include quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations include separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm.
The number and rate of total separations in February were unchanged at 5.3 million and 3.3 percent, respectively. Total separations increased in state and local government education (+32,000) and in federal government (+11,000).
In February, the number of quits was little changed at 3.2 million but was down by 273,000 over the year. Over the month, the quits rate was unchanged at 2.0 percent. Quits increased in state and local government education (+28,000).
In February, the number of layoffs and discharges changed little at 1.8 million. The layoffs and discharges rate was unchanged at 1.1 percent. Layoffs and discharges increased in retail trade (+67,000), real estate and rental and leasing (+24,000), and federal government (+18,000). Layoffs and discharges decreased in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-42,000).
The number of other separations decreased 67,000 to 275,000 in February.
Establishment Size Class
In February, the quits rate and other separations rate decreased for establishments with 1 to 9 employees, while the layoffs and discharges rate increased. The job openings, hires, and total separations rate changed little for establishments with 1 to 9 employees. For establishments with 5,000 or more employees, all rates showed little or no change.
January 2025 Revisions
The number of job openings for January was revised up by 22,000 to 7.8 million, the number of hires was revised down by 22,000 to 5.4 million, and the number of total separations was revised up by 20,000 to 5.3 million. Within separations, the number of quits was revised down by 10,000 to 3.3 million, and the number of layoffs and discharges was revised up by 39,000 to 1.7 million. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.)
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey estimates for March 2025 are scheduled to be released on Tuesday, April 29, 2025, at 10:00 a.m. (ET).
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